Market Outlook #258 (3rd March 2024)
Hello and welcome to the 258th instalment of my Market Outlook.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Filecoin, ImmutableX, Beam, Ethereum Name Service and Myro. I will be publishing a longer Outlook next week with a few more smallcaps in interesting sectors, but if you have any requests please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $62,624
Market Cap: $1.231trn
Thoughts: Beginning with the Monthly chart for BTC/USD, we can see that February was one of the strongest months in history for Bitcoin, rallying off the monthly open all the way into the monthly close at ~$61,200. This did occur on slightly less volume than January, but the sheer strength of the price-action here is evident, with the pair closing through the 78.6% fib of the bear market at $57.6k and above $59k resistance, having marginally rejected at the last level of resistance below all-time highs at $64,900. Price is currently holding to a steep parabolic advance, as shown by the curve of the rally thus far, and should this advance hold into March we should see continuation through all-time highs, with $100k as the obvious major level overhead to find significant resistance, with it being both a psychological level and the 1.618 extension of the bear market. There is also plenty of room for upside relative to prior cycles on momentum indicators, which look primed for continuation.
If we look at the weekly chart, we can see how this past week rallied off that weekly open around $52.1k, having consolidated in a very tight range the week prior, pushing through $59.2k into $64.1k and now set to close around $62.6k. All of this occurred on huge volume on the week, continuing the pattern of growth following the consolidation week. Weekly RSI is pushing into new highs, indicating rampant momentum here, and we now have only $64,900 standing in the way of new highs beyond $69.2k. The parabola has also been depicted here, however, and we do have further room to consolidate following this expansion if required whilst still holding the parabolic advance. Now, what is kind of wild is that this pace of advance is indicative of prices close to $100k as early as this summer. What we may see occur – and what would be more typical of a 4-year cycle – would be a break of the parabola shortly following new all-time highs, consolidation for a period and then a new parabolic advance into the market cycle peak. If, however, we simply hold to this curve and rally into and beyond the summer, it is likely we see a cyclical top within 2024. Looking ahead to next week, I think it is highly likely if ETF inflows persist we see this resistance broken and price push into that all-time high, where I would expect to see a lot of volatility, particularly given the amount of leverage in the markets at present.
Turning finally to the daily, we can see that price has been consolidating in tightening daily ranges for the past four days following the break and close through $59.2k. Given that momentum is showing no signs of exhaustion on any timeframe we have looked at, one is inclined to expect upside resolution to this consolidation. However, as we do have *a lot* of leverage here, I would not be surprised to see price-action similar to last week where we take out local lows into support at $59.2k before reversing sharply higher through $65k. Wild week ahead…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $3464.82 (0.05531 BTC)
Market Cap: $416.329bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has continued to rally higher, building on the past three weeks of similar price-action, rallying off that weekly open into the weekly close here at $3460, shy of prior support at $3580 – the level we have marked out as a target for a swing position for some time now. Looking at this, there are no clear reasons to expect the rally to cease here, with momentum in full support of bulls and no signs of rejection yet. That said, I have now exited levered longs, holding only spot ETH as we go into next week – no need to be a hero up here, in my view. If we do reject $3580. I would expect a higher-low to form over the next couple of weeks above $2800 and price to continue from there into $3950. However, if we don’t reject next week, I think it is likely this just continues to rip into that $3950 level shortly thereafter, with only $4385 then holding it down before fresh all-time highs. It is likely that this last move upwards into all-time highs will occur when BTC/USD has broken all-time highs and consolidated, allowing ETH/BTC to continue to move higher.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we can see that despite the successful breakout beyond long-term trendline resistance, this past week of price-action in BTC/USD has weighed heavily, causing the pair to retrace the rally all the way back below the trendline, below the 200wMA, and back into support at 0.0551. This truly is chop city here, but we do have some signs of strength in momentum and structure here, as long as this now holds above 0.051; if BTC/USD makes a new all-time high next week and ETH/BTC does not make a lower-low below 0.051, that would be a *huge* sign of strength, in my view. Looking briefly at the daily, we can see how the 360dMA capped the last rally, but daily structure is looking decent here as we form a higher-low above that 0.0533 level. Honestly, until we see BTC break all-time highs, it’s hard to have a read on this on the daily timeframe at all – I just want to see 0.051 hold on that all-time high break to be sure on betting on ETH strength from there.
Filecoin:
FIL/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
FIL/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $10.65 (16,871 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.505bn
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at FIL/USD, we can see from the weekly that price turned weekly structure bullish on the move through $6.74 into $8.13, retraced to find support above $4.63 and has since rallied on growing volume into $11.25 this past week, confirming the uptrend. Momentum also looks strong here, and if the pair can hold above $8.13 next week I would expect to see price trade through $11.25 towards the next major resistance at $17. Honestly though, we are barely leaving disbelief for this market cycle as price breaks through $11.25, with the 23.6% fib of the bear market all the way up near $57. If you are a spot holder from the lows, I would just sit comfortably and await at the very least a 200wMA retest at $26, with major resistance above that at $30, before looking to exit anything at all. If we drop into the daily, we can also see how the confluence of the 200dMA and 360dMA acted as support, with the former now crossing above the latter (a sign of an emerging bull market for alts). From there, price rallied into fresh yearly highs, with daily structure firmly bullish. There are no signs of exhaustion here either, so any pull-backs towards $8.80 would be buying opportunities, in my opinion, with invalidation below $6.74.
Turning to FIL/BTC, on the weekly we can see that the pair is still very much at cycle lows, having only just bounced off of all-time lows at 10.6k satoshis, through 14.2k as reclaimed support into 18.5k satoshis this past week, which is prior support turned resistance. We have had diminishing volatility into this support cluster for months, and a close through 18.5k would turn weekly structure bullish here. If we see that, I think it’s safe to say the pair is emerging from a bear market into a bull market and we can expect sustained outperformance from there. In that scenario I think we mean revert towards that 200wMA at 80k satoshis, just below the 23.6% fib, in the coming months. If we briefly drop into the daily, we can also see how the 200dMA is now acting as resistance and the 360dMA, which capped rallies recently, has been breached and is now acting as support also, providing confluence for this bottoming formation. Not much else to add here for now but this looks solid for strength in the next few weeks.
ImmutableX:
IMX/USD
Daily:
IMX/BTC
Daily:
Price: $3.26 (5211 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.541bn
Thoughts: As IMX has only been trading for a couple of years, both pairs look virtually identical here, so let’s focus on the dollar pair.
Looking at IMX/USD, we can see that following a higher-low formation above support at $1.76, price continued the uptrend, rallying through the $2.61 high in February into $3.70, where it found resistance right around the 50% fib of the bear market and just shy of the 100% fib extension of the current uptrend. We have since seen price consolidate whilst momentum indicators reset, with prior resistance at $2.87 now acting as support. From here, I am expecting another leg higher to unfold, leading to a retest of major resistance at $4.50 – around the 61.8% fib of the bear market, along with the last level of horizontal resistance. That is where I am looking to unload half of my spot bag of IMX from the lows – with a view to holding the rest for price discovery through $7, as any close through $4.50 has no resistance into that all-time high level… it’s been a good ride so far.
Beam:
BEAM/USD
Daily:
BEAM/BTC
Daily:
Price: $0.0341 (54 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.794bn
Thoughts: Again, I will focus here on the Dollar pair for Beam, as it has only been trading for a few months.
Looking at BEAM/USD, we can see that price emerged from the prior consolidation range, flipped that prior all-time high at support at $0.0275 and has been slowly grinding up and consolidating since, pushing into a new high at $0.038 but finding much resistance at $0.0366. For the best part of the past month, prior resistance at $0.0307 has acted as support in this range and we have had bearish divergence. There are currently no signs that the bearish divergence will play out, but the first sign would be a close through $0.0307, turning that level into reclaimed resistance, from which point I would expect to see $0.0275 swept before a new low forms and price resumes the uptrend. If, however, price simply pushes through $0.037 in the coming days and finds support above that all-time high, making higher-highs on RSI, we invalidate this divergence, and that is usually a very strong signal for another leg higher. In that scenario, I am looking at $0.051 as a major target, as it is the confluence of the 200% extension of the prior consolidation and the 300% extension of the uptrend. Longer-term, I am looking for prices well beyond $0.051, but we will then be getting into the latter stages of the market cycle: my expectations are a $10bn+ FDV for Beam when all is said and done, so we’ve still got a good 5-6x in it at least if my expectations play out.
Ethereum Name Service:
ENS/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ENS/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $22.27 (35,471 satoshis)
Market Cap: $685.627mn
Thoughts: Beginning with ENS/USD, on the weekly we can see that price has been consolidating for most of this year following that high volume rally through multiple key resistance levels. We hit $27.43 off that rally and have since been capped by $24.30 as resistance, finding support above $14.55. The past few weeks have been spent right up near that range resistance, with this week seeing a successful retest of prior resistance turned support at $18.50. If we drop into the daily for more clarity, we can see how momentum has completely reset but is holding above that 50 mark as higher-lows form on the price chart, which is promising for bulls. We have local trendline resistance capping the highs, but I am looking to open a levered long on a close above $24.30, turning that level and the trendline into support, as I expect we will begin the next leg higher into the $38-41 range from there. I am also still holding my full spot position from $8.50ish, which I am not looking to sell any time soon, with a view to hold for the 50% fib of the bear market around $85-90. If you’re on the sidelines, this next break and close through resistance is exactly what you want to pounce on when it comes…
Turning to ENS/BTC, we can see that the pair retraced much of the single-week rally over the past couple of months, closing through support turned resistance at 43,300 satoshis this week, as price sold off into reclaimed support above 32k. I am expecting a higher-low to form above the 30k region in March, from which we see continuation of the bull cycle for ENS through 65k satoshis into the October 2022 High around 108k satoshis – the 38.2% fib of the bear market. Above that level, we enter the endgame and approach the latter stages of the market cycle, but, if we drop into the daily, we can see that price is finding support above both the 200dMA and 360dMA, which had acted as resistance prior – and if you have yet to buy spot ENS and want to hitch your wagon to the Vitalik-endorsed Express, somewhere in the the 30-32k satoshi region would make perfect sense, especially if BTC blasts through all-time highs in the near-term and provides another dump on the ENS/BTC pair into support. As long as 26k satoshis does not give way, I think this still looks solid.
Myro:
MYRO/USD
Daily:
MYRO/BTC
Daily:
Price: $0.158 (255 satoshis)
Market Cap: $157.943mn
Thoughts: As Myro has only been trading for a few months, let’s focus here on the Dollar pair.
Looking at MYRO/USD, we can see that price consolidated after that all-time high at $0.26, retracing rapidly into $0.041 as support at the beginning of February. From there, price formed a multi-week range capped by prior support at $0.11, forming a higher-low above $0.052 in mid-February before rallying through that $0.11 level a couple of days ago, as memecoin mania began to kick into gear. That level is now acting as support, and price is sat just shy of prior resistance at $0.176. I am expecting to see continuation through this level into the prior all-time high in the next couple of weeks, leading to price discovery and continuation of the broader uptrend. The next target through $0.26 would be $0.44 as the 1.618 extension of the trend, followed by $0.53. Little else to add here.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at [email protected].