As the Dollar Index (DXY) experiences a recent pullback, crypto traders are banking on continued dollar weakness to fuel a resurgence in Bitcoin (BTC), although some banks hold a contrary view.
Recent trends have seen Bitcoin trading within the $60,000 to $70,000 range since mid-March, with the dollar’s bounce on the DXY contributing to this stabilization. However, a reversal in the DXY’s trajectory, coupled with expectations of a weaker dollar, has reignited optimism among Bitcoin bulls.
Mike Alfred, a value investor and managing partner at Alpine Fox LP, anticipates a turnaround in the DXY, projecting a move back towards 102-103, which he believes will coincide with a bitcoin rally towards $90,000 in the short term. While some banks foresee continued dollar strength, others see signs of a potential peak, with projections ranging between 107 and 110 for the DXY.
Societe Generale’s Cross Asset Research Team and Scotiabank are among those forecasting a resilient dollar, citing expectations of a prolonged hold on interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the possibility of a U.S.-China trade war escalation, with proposed tariff hikes on Chinese imports, could further bolster the dollar, according to Barclays.
Despite divergent opinions, crypto traders remain focused on the potential impact of a weaker dollar, which historically correlates with increased risk-taking and a favorable environment for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. As such, traders are closely monitoring shifts in the DXY and geopolitical developments that could influence the dollar’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
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