The Drought Theory:
The balance on exchanges has been steadily declining over the past year or two. If the trend continues in 3 years or so the major exchanges will have little to no Bitcoin left to facilitate trading and meet the needs of the buyers.
Factors that will likely shorten the timeline:
We will have another having event in 2024.
The current price just under $17k and likely to decrease in the short term
It is becoming increasingly easy for people cross the world to purchase some
Factors that could lengthen the timeline:
If this ‘first great bitcoin drought’ occurs the price is likely to increase substantially in a short period of time. I think this will be an order of magnitude bigger than previous bull runs because there was always enough bitcoin available via CEXs and DEXs. While I do acknowledge that there will be increased selling pressure when it hits higher dollar values I think it is unlikely this outpaces buying pressure in the long run.