EURUSD is one of the major currency pairs. It means that it’s one of the most traded pairs in Forex. However, traders around the globe try to predict its future price for more than opening successful trades. The direction of EURUSD may reflect the strength of either the EU or US economy. Moreover, the EUR to US dollar rate may reflect the overall global market sentiment.
As the pair is widely traded, it may be hard to forecast its rate for the long term. The Euro/US dollar rate is subject to such factors as interest rate differences, inflation, jobs data, trade, and capital flows. Simultaneously, a large part of the pricing is also related to ‘event’ risks that cannot be gauged in advance. Let’s go more in-depth in this Euro to Dollar forecast and analysis of technical indicators.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major takeaways
- In the medium term, most analysts expect the EURUSD to grow to 1.1449 by the end of 2025.
- The rate can reach 1.296 before 2027 if an optimistic scenario plays out. It’s worth noting that the euro price may fall below $1 while correcting.
- The currency pair’s rate drops during market instability. However, the EURUSD’s high liquidity turns it into an optimal tool for speculative trading.
EURUSD Current Rate
The current rate of the EURUSD pair is $1.07219. Below, you can see an interactive Forex chart in real-time.
Characteristic Features of the EURUSD Pair
The Euro vs Dollar pair is traded under the Forex ticker EUR/USD. It belongs to the major currency pairs (majors) and is characterized by increased liquidity. This is not surprising, as it includes two of the world’s major reserve currencies: USD and EUR. It is in the euro/dollar that the largest volume of transactions is made during daily trading in the Forex market (approximately 20% of the total volume).
The behavior of the EURUSD pair is a kind of indicator showing the comparative state of the US and EU economies. If the US economy is growing steadily, and problems arise in the EU, this might cause a EUR to US dollar fall. Conversely, if there is a decline in growth rates in the USA and the Eurozone demonstrates good performance, the EURUSD pair will grow. Let’s consider the main trading characteristics of this major pair:
- Active trading hours — the pair is traded around the clock five days a week. It is most active during the European and American trading sessions. At this time, the largest trading volumes take place, and one can see the main movements of the EUR USD.
- Volatility — the EUR to USD is characterized by medium volatility. During the release of important data, the pair is capable of making strong movements of 100 pips and more. But in general, if you look at the historical data, the average daily volatility of the EUR USD pair is about 80 pips.
- Spread is one of the main advantages of this pair. Due to the highest liquidity, the spread for the EUR USD is the lowest. On popular ECN accounts, the spread is usually less than 1 pip.
The Dollar in 2024: More Predictable?
Under Joe Biden’s presidency, the US dollar fluctuates less in world markets. Financial markets noted that the new US president focused on domestic issues and engaged in constructive trade negotiations. These factors reduced the tension in the financial markets, reducing the demand for the greenback as a safe-haven currency.
Joe Biden also launched a massive US stimulus plan that helped the economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic but further widened the US budget deficit. The US Fed kept the rate unchanged at the latest two meetings, impacting the EURUSD quotes.
In addition, China, South Korea, and Taiwan have coped well with the pandemic and eventually resumed economic growth. It means that investors have turned to risky markets. Against the backdrop of the latest USD movements in Forex, making forecasts for tomorrow, rates, and correlations can become challenging.
According to analysts, the future of the market looks promising. The goal for many traders is a long trade, that is, a long-term purchase. The term of such a purchase can be determined depending on the popularity of the currency pair.
Technical analysis is also an important part of forecasting. Analysts and large analytics firms use various tools such as moving averages, oscillators, and pivot points to analyze past data and determine future market trends. This helps investors make informed investment and trading decisions.
Euro to dollar forecast 30 days looks promising thanks to recent moves and investments. Although Forex trading is full of risks, a thorough comparison of market characteristics and conducting analysis will help traders make profitable decisions.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
We will need to use various time frames to have a more accurate EURUSD outlook. First, we will explore the monthly time frame.
It’s recommended to use three tools to conduct detailed technical analysis:
These instruments will help us identify the euro to usd trend, support and resistance levels, and oversold/overbought areas.
The price has grown from 0.95361 to 1.10320 since early autumn 2022. The forecast chart shows clear resistance and support levels in an ascending channel. The price entered a sideways range, with support at 1.04750 and resistance at 1.10570, amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Euro/dollar weekly price forecast as of 29.04.2024
Last week, the euro’s upward correction continued. As a result, the price reached resistance (A) 1.0785 – 1.0769 (with a 10% margin of error). This was followed by a sellers’ reaction, and the price fell at the end of the week. If the decline continues this week, we can expect the price to retest the April low. If the pair goes below the April low, it is likely to pierce the Target Zone 3 1.0635 – 1.0618. In this case, the next selling target will be within the Target Zone 4 1.0467 – 1.0450.
If the upward correction continues this week and the pair increases above last week’s high, it may retest resistance (A) 1.0785 – 1.0769. New sales can be considered from this zone with a target of 1.0605.
EURUSD trading ideas for the week:
- Sell according to the pattern at resistance (A) 1.0785 – 1.0769. TakeProfit: 1.0605. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules.
- Sell according to the pattern at resistance (B) 1.0878 – 1.0853. TakeProfit: 1.0605. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules.
Technical analysis based on margin zones methodology is presented by an independent analyst, Alex Rodionov.
EURUSD projection for next three months
An extended bullish divergence shows itself in the chart.
The euro/dollar rate is expected to be at the upper boundary (1.10300) of its sideways trend.
EUR/USD Forecast: the price will reach local highs at the end of March or at the beginning of April and then attempt to break out the resistance line. The RSI is currently above 50, the level it has approached from below. Upon reaching the level of 70, lock in profits as a correction is expected.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates at the end of March, the price may correct sharply to support at 1.05000, with a subsequent false breakout of this level. In that case, we expect the price to gradually return to the ascending channel in May.
What will be the price of euro in 2024 based on technical analysis?
Let’s use Bollinger Bands to make a long-term forecast for the euro/dollar pair.
Based on the indicator’s values, we can assume that the rate will vary from 1.0400 to 1.24000 in the next 12 months.
A rise to the channel’s upper boundary will likely occur amid high volatility, with alternating bullish impulses and short-term corrections. This is confirmed by the euro/dollar’s evolution from May to November 2022: the price broke through the lower boundary of the channel, but returned back by the end of the year.
At least one strong correction is expected to happen in August-September 2024. A local bullish trend could develop to the level of 1.25000, the upper boundary of the long-term trading channel.
EUR/USD monthly price analysis for 2024
Based on the technical analysis, we can make a price prediction for the EUR/USD for 2024 by month.
| Month | EURUSD projected value | |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum, $ | Maximum, $ | |
| April 2024 | 1.22300 | 1.28500 |
| May 2024 | 1.25900 | 1.29700 |
| June 2024 | 1.23200 | 1.26800 |
| July 2024 | 1.21600 | 1.24400 |
| August 2024 | 1.18700 | 1.24900 |
| September 2024 | 1.16500 | 1.19550 |
| October 2024 | 1.17300 | 1.20100 |
| November 2024 | 1.14200 | 1.19450 |
| December 2024 | 1.13400 | 1.18120 |
EURUSD Long-Term Trading Plan
The EUR/USD’s technical analysis allows us to make a long-term trading plan.
- The price has again come close to the resistance line, indicating an upward trend. Buyers have repeatedly tried to break out the level of 1.10000, a psychologically strong one. Upon retesting this resistance, wait until the price consolidates above 1.12000. Then, we can go long with a target of 1.15000.
- It’s also worthwhile to monitor geopolitical news as it impacts the market rate. The euro is currently strengthening against the USD, which is confirmed by the ongoing uptrend.
- It’s important to track the US Fed rate decisions. If the rate drops from 5.5%, the EURUSD will likely correct to 1.05000, where a long trade can be opened.
- Remember to observe your risk management rules. Placing Stop Loss and Take Profit is also a must.
EURUSD Forecast for 2024 by Experts
Most experts believe the EURUSD rate will exit the current trading range and move into a new channel with the lower boundary at 1.10100 and the upper boundary at 1.20000.
Long Forecast
Long Forecast’s analysts predict a stable uptrend for the euro/dollar pair.
| Month | Opening, $ | Low-High, $ | Closing, $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | |||
| April | 1.109 | 1.091-1.141 | 1.124 |
| May | 1.124 | 1.106-1.140 | 1.123 |
| June | 1.123 | 1.084-1.123 | 1.101 |
| July | 1.101 | 1.099-1.133 | 1.116 |
| August | 1.116 | 1.116-1.166 | 1.149 |
| September | 1.149 | 1.133-1.167 | 1.150 |
| October | 1.150 | 1.104-1.150 | 1.121 |
| November | 1.121 | 1.088-1.122 | 1.105 |
| December | 1.105 | 1.097-1.131 | 1.114 |
H3 PandaForecast.com
Analysts at PandaForecast.com forecast a downtrend until mid-year with a subsequent reversal.
| Month | Average price, $ | Pessimistic forecast, $ | Optimistic forecast, $ | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ||||
| April | 1.1062 | 1.0969 | 1.1322 | 3.12% |
| May | 1.0988 | 1.0669 | 1.1144 | 4.26% |
| June | 1.1154 | 1.0966 | 1.1421 | 3.98% |
| July | 1.0938 | 1.0603 | 1.1186 | 5.22% |
| August | 1.0943 | 1.0764 | 1.1205 | 3.94% |
| September | 1.1003 | 1.0698 | 1.1372 | 5.93% |
| October | 1.1266 | 1.1039 | 1.1498 | 3.99% |
| November | 1.1294 | 1.0929 | 1.1503 | 4.99% |
| December | 1.1067 | 1.0778 | 1.1262 | 4.29% |
EURUSD Forecast for 2025 by Experts
The exchange rate euro to dollar will not reach new peaks in 2025, but it will trade at quite high levels.
Long Forecast
According to the Economy Forecast Agency, the euro/dollar rate will remain above $1 in 2025. The pair will open the year on a steady average level of 1.15000 with a subsequent smooth rise to 1.20500.
| Month | Opening | Low-High | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | |||
| January | 1.114 | 1.114-1.154 | 1.137 |
| February | 1.137 | 1.086-1.137 | 1.103 |
| March | 1.103 | 1.103-1.138 | 1.121 |
| April | 1.121 | 1.121-1.166 | 1.149 |
| May | 1.149 | 1.102-1.149 | 1.119 |
| June | 1.119 | 1.118-1.152 | 1.135 |
| July | 1.135 | 1.135-1.185 | 1.167 |
| August | 1.167 | 1.167-1.220 | 1.202 |
| September | 1.202 | 1.194-1.230 | 1.212 |
| October | 1.212 | 1.163-1.212 | 1.181 |
| November | 1.181 | 1.145-1.181 | 1.162 |
| December | 1.162 | 1.116-1.162 | 1.133 |
PandaForecast.com
The analysts at Panda Forecast expect the EURUSD quotes to grow at the beginning of the year. An uptrend may develop later, with the euro/dollar value reaching 1.21100 by year-end.
| Month | Average price | Pessimistic forecast | Optimistic forecast | Volatility, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ||||
| January | 1.1359 | 1.1002 | 1.1665 | 5.69 % |
| February | 1.1350 | 1.1178 | 1.1584 | 3.50 % |
| March | 1.0902 | 1.0764 | 1.1199 | 3.88 % |
| April | 1.1007 | 1.0716 | 1.1340 | 5.50 % |
| May | 1.1298 | 1.0995 | 1.1545 | 4.77 % |
| June | 1.1754 | 1.1571 | 1.1872 | 2.54 % |
| July | 1.2104 | 1.1835 | 1.2445 | 4.90 % |
| August | 1.2038 | 1.1669 | 1.2236 | 4.63 % |
| September | 1.224 | 1.1927 | 1.2585 | 5.23 % |
| October | 1.2328 | 1.2023 | 1.2716 | 5.46 % |
| November | 1.2230 | 1.1870 | 1.2635 | 6.06 % |
| December | 1.1896 | 1.1621 | 1.2146 | 4.32 % |
Long-term EURUSDforecast for 2026-2027
The EURUSD prediction for 2026-2027 is rough as market conditions change daily.
Long Forecast
The Economy Forecast Agency’s experts provide quite a controversial EURUSD forecast for the next few years, not recommending long trades. In 2026, the euro/dollar rate won’t rise above $1.14300; in 2027, the pair will trade within the 2023 average range.
| Month | Opening | Low-High | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | |||
| January | 1.133 | 1.089-1.133 | 1.106 |
| February | 1.106 | 1.106-1.143 | 1.126 |
| March | 1.126 | 1.076-1.126 | 1.092 |
| April | 1.092 | 1.061-1.093 | 1.077 |
| May | 1.077 | 1.060-1.092 | 1.076 |
| June | 1.076 | 1.047-1.079 | 1.063 |
| July | 1.063 | 1.052-1.084 | 1.068 |
| August | 1.068 | 1.030-1.068 | 1.046 |
| September | 1.046 | 1.028-1.060 | 1.044 |
| October | 1.044 | 1.009-1.044 | 1.024 |
| November | 1.024 | 1.004-1.034 | 1.019 |
| December | 1.019 | 1.005-1.035 | 1.020 |
| 2027 | |||
| January | 1.020 | 0.974-1.020 | 0.989 |
| February | 0.989 | 0.989-1.021 | 1.006 |
| March | 1.006 | 1.006-1.046 | 1.031 |
| April | 1.031 | 0.986-1.031 | 1.001 |
| May | 1.001 | 0.981-1.011 | 0.996 |
| June | 0.996 | 0.973-1.003 | 0.988 |
| July | 0.988 | 0.988-1.028 | 1.013 |
| August | 1.013 | 1.013-1.055 | 1.039 |
PandaForecast.com
The experts at Panda Forest predict that the EUR/USD will continue trending upwards throughout 2026. Slight corrections are expected in 2027.
| Month | Average price | Pessimistic forecast | Optimistic forecast | Volatility, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||
| January | 1.1946 | 1.1605 | 1.2202 | 4.89 % |
| February | 1.1916 | 1.1765 | 1.2281 | 4.20 % |
| March | 1.2056 | 1.1686 | 1.2380 | 5.60 % |
| April | 1.2233 | 1.2074 | 1.2629 | 4.39 % |
| May | 1.2197 | 1.1987 | 1.2453 | 3.74 % |
| June | 1.2013 | 1.1715 | 1.2164 | 3.69 % |
| July | 1.2108 | 1.1778 | 1.2363 | 4.73 % |
| August | 1.2139 | 1.1843 | 1.2450 | 4.87 % |
| September | 1.1644 | 1.1292 | 1.2006 | 5.95 % |
| October | 1.1434 | 1.1079 | 1.1597 | 4.47 % |
| November | 1.1838 | 1.1659 | 1.2046 | 3.22 % |
| December | 1.1847 | 1.1554 | 1.1962 | 3.41 % |
| 2027 | ||||
| January | 1.2181 | 1.1976 | 1.2539 | 4.49 % |
| February | 1.2232 | 1.1908 | 1.2612 | 5.58 % |
| March | 1.2042 | 1.1865 | 1.2189 | 2.66 % |
| April | 1.2381 | 1.1965 | 1.2615 | 5.15 % |
| May | 1.2173 | 1.1902 | 1.2316 | 3.36 % |
| June | 1.2301 | 1.1918 | 1.2466 | 4.39 % |
| July | 1.1841 | 1.1712 | 1.2159 | 3.68 % |
| August | 1.2070 | 1.1953 | 1.2206 | 2.08 % |
| September | 1.2196 | 1.1787 | 1.2504 | 5.74 % |
| October | 1.2043 | 1.1926 | 1.2194 | 2.20 % |
| November | 1.2098 | 1.1941 | 1.2327 | 3.13 % |
| December | 1.2068 | 1.1875 | 1.2336 | 3.74 % |
Which Factors Affect the Quotes of the EURUSD Currency Pair?
The EURUSD rate is the ratio of the currencies of the two largest economies in the world – the EU and the USA. Therefore, important economic and political news from the EU and the US directly affects the euro-dollar rate. These factors of influence are called fundamental; in addition to them, there are also technical ones. Let’s consider both those and others in more detail:
Fundamental Factors
There are several important economic indicators for the US and EU. The most significant factors affecting the price include the following:
- Change in interest rates of the ECB and the Fed.
- Unemployment Rate.
- Data on jobs created in the US (Nonfarm Payrolls).
- Growth rate of GDP.
- Inflation indices (CPI, PPI).
- Industrial production (Industrial Production index).
- Retail Sales.
- Trade balance.
- Consumer Confidence Index.
- Indices of business sentiment (ISM, IFO).
- Speeches by top officials – press conferences of the heads of the ECB and the Fed, speeches, and comments by leading politicians from the EU and the United States.
- Political events – various reshuffles in the government, elections, popular unrest, internal political instability (e.g., Brexit).
- Force majeure – extraordinary events, natural disasters, man-made disasters, terrorist attacks, epidemics.
Technical Factors
- Active trend — an essential technical factor for trading is the presence of an active trend. In an uptrend, purchases are preferable; in a downtrend, sales are recommended. In a sideways trend (range), trading in both directions from the boundaries of the price range is appropriate.
- Important support and resistance levels are historical highs and lows on the price chart. These are important price reference points for analyzing and predicting the future of euro vs dollar.
- Price patterns various patterns of continuation or reversal of a trend from classical technical analysis, candlestick patterns, and Price Action patterns.
For a risk aversion strategy, it is necessary to use a combination of technical and fundamental factors when making decisions when trading the euro dollar pair.
Is EURUSD Still a Good Investment?
The EUR/USD pair is highly liquid, so market participants can consider this asset for trading. A bullish trend with correction periods is expected; analysts predict the EUR/USD’s further growth.
Long Forecast’s EURUSD prediction for 2024 confirms traders remain interested in the eur/usd pair and points out its further growth.
| Month | Opening, $ | Low-High, $ | Closure, $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | |||
| April | 1.109 | 1.091-1.141 | 1.124 |
| May | 1.124 | 1.106-1.140 | 1.123 |
| June | 1.123 | 1.084-1.123 | 1.10 |
| July | 1.101 | 1.099-1.133 | 1.116 |
| August | 1.116 | 1.116-1.166 | 1.149 |
| September | 1.149 | 1.133-1.167 | 1.150 |
| October | 1.150 | 1.104-1.150 | 1.12 |
| November | 1.121 | 1.088-1.122 | 1.105 |
| December | 1.105 | 1.097-1.131 | 1.114 |
Source: Longforecast.com
But what does the EURUSD forecast predict for the distant future? It’s important to remember that any long-term forecasts, even the EURUSD forecast or any other currency pair, are too unreliable to believe in. Too many factors may affect the rate of the currency pair, and it’s best to be up-to-date with what’s happening in the global arena in order to make realistic and reliable predictions.
If you do decide that trading this currency pair is something for you, and you believe in the future of the Euro vs. US Dollar pair, first, you need to decide on a suitable trading method for you and work it out first on a demo account, and then on a real account. A great reason to create a free demo account on LiteFinance! LiteFinance has fact-checked information and a user-friendly platform with an outlook for novices as well as experienced traders and investors.
By the time of transactions, you can trade as follows:
- Intraday — trading without carrying over the position to the next day. It is characterized by narrow stop-loss and take-profit orders, requiring a trader to spend a lot of time in front of a monitor and strict discipline, and is available even with a small deposit.
- Medium-term (swing trading) — the duration of transactions from several hours to two-three days. The medium-term trading implies wider stop-loss and take-profit orders, takes less time, and requires a more substantial trading account size.
- Long-term — trades are held for several weeks or even for months. This trading style is more suitable for investors.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.