Animal Spirits: The Market Cap of Taylor Swift

Posted September 6, 2023 by sean

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It really is amazing how this works.@NAAIM_Official Exposure Index was above 100 in late July, the highest level since late ’22.

Now after a 5% minor pullback, it is at the lowest level this year.

In fact, down 67 pts in four wks is the largest 4-wk drop since March 2020. pic.twitter.com/MwVuYqlGPZ

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 29, 2023

The $SPX fell 1.8% in Aug after surging 19.5% YTD thru July. The 13 previous times SPX +>10% thru July &⬇️in Aug, it rose every time Sept-Dec by avg of 9.9%. Just one data point, but it supports the case that the Aug decline was a pullback within an ongoing uptrend. @NDR_RESEARCH pic.twitter.com/phypwypnA0

— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) September 1, 2023

2010s: I blame the Fed for not letting the financial system collapse

2020s: I blame fiscal policy for not letting the financial system collapse

Call me crazy but most elected officials don’t want the financial system to fail

Good luck if that’s what you’re rooting for tho

— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) August 31, 2023

Rapidly rising interest rates have sent the direct costs to service the national debt up dramatically—and if you account for losses on the Federal Reserve’s portfolio, interest payments as a share of GDP are at postwar record highs pic.twitter.com/jyurwFOwkq

— Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 (@JosephPolitano) August 30, 2023

How are real wages doing? Most measures show they are up since prior to the pandemic but are still 3-5% below their immediate pre-pandemic trajectory.

This shows what it looks like for average hourly earnings defining the trend based on the two years pre-COVID. pic.twitter.com/Y6ULC3PD6G

— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 13, 2023

Believe it or not, house affordability hasn’t changed much in the last 40 years.

What got inflated was people’s desire for bigger and more luxurious homes. The median new house today is almost 1000 sqft bigger than 40 years ago.

Price per sqft, inflation adjusted: pic.twitter.com/pILKe3vDW3

— Daniel Vassallo (@dvassallo) September 4, 2023

Fixed charts through the latest home print for those interested:

1) cost per sq ft killed record highs the past few years
2) mortgage payments near levels when rates were ~20%
3) mortgage payment per sq ft 2x’d the past few years, but is much lower than peak rates https://t.co/UfqucmuCiN pic.twitter.com/dWGfqgMaty

— Jake (@EconomPic) September 5, 2023

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