Animal Spirits: The Panic of 2023

Posted March 15, 2023 by sean

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SVB was founded in 1983.

Its birth and death bookend a distinct 40 year period of economic history.

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 10, 2023

Feels like fall of 08 a little. But with much less panic. These regulators have had 15 years working on this. There is a lot more expertise and experience. The stakes are better known. All that is a likely positive for how this gets resolved svb depositors and the system.

— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) March 10, 2023

I have been advocating for CFO’s to keep some cash in #Bitcoin for a while now as a hedge against bad government and the banking system. The Silicon Valley Bank crisis might keep companies who didn’t buy at least some #BTC from making payroll on Monday. This is a Main St. problem

— Tim Draper (@TimDraper) March 11, 2023

If markets closed now, the 2-day move in 10-year US Treasury futures (going back to 1982) would be 99.9th %-ile.

What’s your catalyst narrative?

— Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ (@choffstein) March 13, 2023

The market is now projecting a Fed Funds rate of 4.10% by the July meeting, or just under 50 bps of cuts from current levels. This was at 5.66% last Wednesday. That’s 150 basis points of looser policy in less than a week. pic.twitter.com/tk4JmTDJsF

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 13, 2023

Traffic to home builder websites hit an ALL TIME high on March 7th. Yep – even way beyond any time in 2020-2022.

— Kevin Oakley (@koakley81) March 9, 2023

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